Are you a pessimist or an optimist? Opinion seems divided in the wine trade as to what sort of Christmas we will have, although all seemed clear on what wines we should be ordering. Checkout wine expert John Wilson reports.
Some retailers and importers I spoke to seemed upbeat about the coming festive season.
Others seemed distinctly less sanguine, fearing that rising prices and high cost of living increases would dampen demand.
As for trends, there seemed to be two themes.
Firstly, as we all know, Gen Z drink less and look for more no and lower (as opposed to low) alcohol wines and other drinks.
This demand will intensify over Christmas.
Many others in the trade that I spoke to seemed confident that consumers would return to their old favourites for Christmas dinners and other seasonal entertaining.
I suspect that it depends on the kind of shop you run.
Motivators
One optimistic retailer pointed out that Christmas falls in a favourable period for shopping this year.
“People will finish up work on Friday, country people will go home on Saturday, so everyone will a few days to think and plan and we will have more time to talk to our customers,” he said.
“It should be a very good shopping period. Purse strings might loosen too.”
Others were less positive. Terry Pennington of Santa Rita argued, “I don’t think it will be a Christmas when people are buying buckets of fine wine.
"I think there will be a bit of austerity.
"If you believe the statistics, the last few months have been horrible.
"The €20 plus market was always small, and it will be squeezed.
"It will be a struggle for the trade; there are too many supermarkets.
"To succeed you need to have a bespoke offering that will compete and offer variety.
"Independent retailers need a strong range between €10 and €15.
"Less than €10 is a problem for quality and doesn’t offer value.
"I would also argue that you shouldn’t offer ten Chilean Sauvignon Blanc wines at the same price.
"We must do the provenance thing – know where your wine comes from.
"Butchers and other shops do it well and the wine trade has to do the same.”
Another importer agreed; “Over the last couple of years, people have struggled with cost-of-living increases but have still spent at Christmas.
"This year, I think people are skint, so it is going to be hard.”
Almost all seemed united in predicting a difficult time for the on-trade, although one importer said that while 80% of restaurants are struggling, the other 20% are doing very well.
Several retailers pointed out that when consumers cook at home or order in a Deliveroo dinner, their sales of quality wine increase.
One retailer noticed a trend of consumers prinking on low and no-alcohol drinks prior to going out as a means of saving money.
Modern and Traditional
As for what we will be drinking, continuing underlying trends include a gradual shift to more white wines and less full-bodied red wines.
One commentator said that people are now used to, and like, lighter, fresher wines.
We are coming into darker months and richer foods, so bigger reds will increase a bit over the coming months, but demand for refreshing white, rosé and red wines will remain.
Our tastes seem to be a mix of modern and traditional.
Many consumers are interested in discovering new wine regions and lesser-known grape varieties.
There is an increased demand for organic, or at least sustainably produced, wines.
Natural wines remain a minority interest; one retailer pointed out that you need to ‘warn’ your customer about the style before they buy.
Several predicted increased sales of lower alcohol wine, commenting that consumers, younger consumers in particular, are looking for wines with an 11.5% to 12% ABV.
If you have customers who intend throwing a party of any kind, they will certainly keep this in mind when ordering.
Gen Z are more likely to add water, ice and other drinks to their wine to create cocktails, either making them weaker or stronger.
Retailers are expecting a big rise in their no alcohol section, including wine.
Two said they were going to have colour-coded labels to indicate lower alcohol wines.
While rosé sales plummet in winter months, there is a small but growing group who consume it throughout the year.
As with lower alcohol wines, it is ideal for festive parties and as an aperitif.
Overall, everyone I spoke to was unanimous in believing that the well-known brands would be in demand this Christmas, with consumers less likely to experiment on wines they don’t know.
One retailer commented, “The classics will sell. They always do at Christmas. We expect to see a big swing back. It is a comfort thing, because people understand them and know what they like.”
The Classics
So, what are the classics?
Champagne and Prosecco, obviously, along with Chardonnay and red Bordeaux, and Burgundy or Rioja Reserva, followed by Port.
Pinot Grigio is a perennial favourite throughout the year.
Starting with sparkling wine, importers argued that Champagne sales are holding up despite price increases, although several commented that Cava is making a good comeback, and sales of Crémant have been very strong all year.
Prosecco, meanwhile, is not in as much demand as before, although quality Prosecco will continue to sell.
I was told that Pét-Nat wines are still doing very well with a certain younger demographic, provided they are reasonably priced.
Despite price increases, for white wine, it seems likely that demand for Chardonnay from Mâcon and Chablis will remain steady.
Recent figures from New Zealand show a big fall off in exports, but buyers I spoke to said that demand here in Ireland remains steady for Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc.
Albariño from Rías Baixas in Spain and Alvarinho from Portugal is one of the great success stories in Ireland over the last few years and can now be included as one of the classics.
Like unoaked Chardonnay, this is one of the great flexible wines, as it is light enough to serve by itself, but rich enough to go with most starters, as well as main courses – including turkey and ham.
Alternative Wines
However, there are alternatives to all the above, and Burgundy prices are of real concern to some.
More adventurous retailers who have a relationship with their customers could suggest South African or New Zealand Chardonnay, or even Chenin Blanc, and white Rioja or Godello from Galicia.
Instead of Pinot Grigio, there is a huge range of light white wines from Italy.
Soave is coming back into fashion, and sales of Verdicchio are growing all the time.
From France, Muscadet (an old classic), white Côtes du Rhône, or Alsace Riesling are all worth considering.
All of these can offer greater value for money but cannot really be described as classics.
Most will probably require hard selling on the shop floor.
Bordeaux and Burgundy
Classic red wines include Rioja Reserva, Bordeaux, Burgundy, and possibly Malbec from Argentina, and the red wines of Tuscany.
Several retailers said they expected very strong demand for Bordeaux, although there would be less demand for Burgundy as prices are ‘stupid,’ according to one.
One importer said they were increasing their range of less expensive red Burgundies from the Mâconnais and Côte Chalonnaise, as well as Beaujolais, as consumers are baulking at the increased prices.
Inexpensive Bordeaux, if chosen carefully, can offer great value for money.
There has been a glut of wine for several years and growers are currently being paid to grub up vines.
This makes it a buyer’s market with some very keen pricing available, although care is required when buying.
By contrast, the other side of Bordeaux, the crus classés and other premium wines, remains very strong.
If you have a market for Lynch-Bages and the other well-known names of Bordeaux, do not expect to be able to buy at discounted prices.
At entry-level, Rioja has similar problems to Bordeaux, with growers being offered very low prices for their harvest this year.
However, the Reserva category is the most popular in Ireland, including some well-known brands, and while prices are always keen, there have been no fire sales.
For many years, Châteauneuf-du-Pape was a Christmas dinner favourite, but this full-throttle red has fallen out of fashion in recent years, largely due to price increases and a preference for lighter alcohol wines.
If you do have customers for this style, make sure you stock up on less expensive alternatives such as Gigondas, Vacqueyras, and good quality red Côtes du Rhône, all of which can offer great value.
Burgundy lovers have no shortage of alternatives.
The crus of Beaujolais, such as Fleurie, Morgon and others, have increased a little in price but still offer familiar, well priced alternatives to Burgundy.
Chile, New Zealand, South Africa, Australia and California all produce very good quality Pinot Noir, which is usually priced very competitively.
Malbec from Argentina is strong and offers good value for money, one retailer told me.
It will sell even better in cold weather and during the festive season.
Expect to see the trend towards more elegant Malbec from higher altitudes continue.
Strangely, no one I talked to mentioned Ripasso and other appassimento-style wines.
Yet I know these are among the best-selling wines in many shops, and I certainly expect them to sell even better in the coming festive season.
Those richer, rounder (and sometimes sweeter) wines seem to suit the north European palate.
Sales are growing in most cooler climate countries and Ireland is no exception.
The LBV Port
The market for port remains strong and not just at Christmas.
One retailer commented, “We would sell it throughout the year, but once you get the dark nights and cold weather, sales increase.
"At Christmas, people buy it as a gift and for themselves too.”
The market for hot port (and therefore Ruby Port) has gone.
Tawny Port has repositioned itself as a wine to drink chilled with dessert (worth remembering for dinner parties) and has been driving the port category for several years.
However, at Christmas, there will be increased demand for the classic LBV or Late-Bottled-Vintage Port, which will be ceremoniously decanted into a cut glass decanter and consumed over the holiday period.
Some things haven’t changed!
Several retailers predict a swing back to traditional sweet wines.
Sauternes and other well-known names will sell.
A few years ago, there was a proliferation of dessert wines.
Now there seems to be far fewer, except for the classic styles, meaning Sauternes.
However, Jurancon and the sweet Chenin Blancs from the Loire have a certain following and offer a more refreshing alternative.
Budget May Lift Spirits
Lastly, Christmas is a time for giving.
Several companies expressed optimism that corporate gifting will grow this year.
I noted an increased number of gift catalogues at the various trade fairs and tastings.
While gift packs may be easier to sell, the bespoke expensive bottle is often more likely to be remembered.
This is not the time to experiment.
A well-known name, be it Bordeaux, Burgundy or Champagne, will always impress.
To finish on a positive note, the budget may lift spirits and will certainly put more money in most people’s pockets.
Minimum pricing means that the multiples can no longer offer multiple quantity discounts, nor sell very inexpensive wines.
Some independent retailers feel that this is helping them, although they can no longer offer case discounts.
The consensus seems to be that there will be a return to classic wines this Christmas, as well as increased demand for lower alcohol wines.
The target price range for almost all independent retailers is €10-€20, which is not easy to achieve with the price rises we have seen over the last year or two.
Several sources stressed the importance of a clean, logical offering, with ‘good, better, best’ in each category, enticing displays, and a well-chosen but limited range of wines that are not available in every other retail shop and in our supermarkets.
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