Irish consumer confidence lifted slightly in January, as households appeared to accept that the worst of the cost-of-living crisis is behind them while preparing for a turbulent geopolitical climate, according to the latest Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey.
The survey, compiled by Austin Hughes in partnership with Core Research, rose from 73.9 in December to 74.9 in January – surpassing the October and November level of 74.1.
While this is a positive trajectory, this is still well below the long-term survey average of 84.3.
Irish consumers in January were less concerned about their household finances, but also became slightly more cautious about the overall economic outlook and job prospects, in particular.
They are bracing themselves for changes following the inauguration of new US president Donald Trump, whose campaign promises include changing policy on American companies operating abroad.
While Irish consumers are, overall, quite positive at the moment, they are very conscious of possible impending risk – how pressing they find that risk may become apparent in next month’s survey.
Trends
Hughes notes, “Although there is no consistent seasonal pattern to the sentiment survey, there is a strong tendency for January readings to be notably stronger than the preceding December figures.
“In the past 25 years, there were only three times when sentiment weakened in January: in 2021, on fears of a second Covid wave; in 2009, when a crashing Irish economy prompted severe austerity measures; and in 2001, when the dot-com collapse appeared to threaten the youthful Celtic Tiger.”
Hughes adds that this year’s gain indicates a still-nervous consumer, but the January increase raised sentiment to its highest level since July 2024 (also 74.9).
The last time that the sentiment was above the current level was in February 2022, after which the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a collapse in consumer confidence.
This led to a surge in food and energy costs, causing a recent low point for the index in September 2022, at 42.1 – and while consumers now feel better about the cost of living, their concerns are far from over, and they remain cautious as they move into 2025.
‘Caution Still Dominates’
Speaking about the results, the CEO of the Irish League of Credit Unions, David Malone, said, “It is positive that the January Sentiment Survey hints that consumers concerned about the cost-of-living crisis are easing somewhat, although a pushback in spending plans suggests caution still dominates consumer thinking.
“Whether their spending or savings plans are big or small, Irish consumers can rely on their local credit union for support.”
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