The coffee harvest in Brazil has progressed quicker than normal this year as reported yields remained smaller than expected for the world’s largest producer.
The harvest has reached around 60% for arabica fields and around 80% for robusta areas so far.
According to analysts and agronomists, drier than normal weather along with above average temperatures led to quicker field work while hurting plants’ health.
This will make the final crop smaller than originally projected.
Brazil’s exporters group Cecafe said the market consensus is for a robusta crop 10% smaller than initially thought, while arabica production could be 5% smaller.
Consultancy Safras & Mercado said it might cut its estimate for robusta by between 8% and 14%.
It did not provide a view for arabica, although it recognised that bean sizes are small.
Brazilian broker Eduardo Carvalhaes said, “There is no doubt anymore that there are problems.
“What people discuss now is how big it is. It will depend on the region.”
At least two farmer unions have released statements about production shortfalls.
The Jaguare Rural Union, in the robusta-producing state of Espirito Santo, said local production could fall by as much as 35%.
Another union in Sao Paulo state Garca estimated losses of around 30%.
However, traders usually view statements from groups linked to farmers as exaggerated.
A broker in Minas Gerais state said bean sizes have improved recently as the harvest advanced, but price premiums for high-quality, large beans are very high at the moment.
Coffee trees at highlands suffered less, but crops at lower altitudes faced increased heat which meant that beans did not grow well, said agronomist Jonas Ferraresso, who believes overall losses for arabica might be around 10%.
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