The frost events that hit coffee fields in Brazil in recent weeks will cause a loss of approximately 4% to production in the next season, according to forecaster Tropical Research Services (TRS) in a webcast organised by Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
"The frosts were moderate events, not as severe as we saw in 2001 and 1994," the company's global head of research, Steve Wateridge, said.
Wateridge said TRS that expects a loss of approximately 2.7 million 60kg bags to Brazil's 2022/23 coffee crop potential from the frosts, taking into consideration the forecaster's initial estimate for a crop around 68 million bags next year in the world's largest producer and exporter.
TRS' loss estimate is one of the lowest seen so far in the market.
Potential Export Loss
Brazilian exporter Guaxupe sees a potential loss of 4.5 million bags, while trader Comexim expects nearly a 20% fall in the production potential for the south of Minas Gerais, the largest producing region in Brazil.
Wateridge said TRS had sent people on the ground in Brazil into the affected areas after the frosts and checked the situation of the trees.
For him, the current drought in Brazil will have a larger impact than the frosts. TRS currently estimates a loss of 6.3 million bags for the potential arabica production next season from the drought.
He expects the current high coffee prices, if sustained, to boost production in other countries, possibly offsetting the losses to frost seen in Brazil.
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