Raw coffee price shocks take about a year to feed through to consumers, while the residual impact lasts at least four years, according to a report published on Friday by the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
Thanks to persistent adverse weather hurting supplies and eating into global stockpiles, raw coffee prices have been rising, with arabica KCc2 gaining 70% on the ICE exchange last year, and more than 20% so far this year.
According to the FAO, about 80% of these prices will feed through to consumers over the course of 11 months in the European Union.
Meanwhile, 80% of the rises in the US will feed through over 8 months.
The US and the EU are by far the world’s largest coffee consuming regions.
Price rises for consumers are likely to be much lower than the rise in the cost of raw beans as there are other factors that contribute to retail coffee prices, such as transport, roasting, packaging, certification and retail markups.
According to the FAO report, a 1% increase in the cost of raw beans in the EU translates to a 0.24% increase in the retail price after 19 months “with the shock persisting for several years.”
In terms of producing countries, the UN body said prices for coffee bean growers rose 17.8% in Ethiopia, 12.3% in Kenya, 13.6% in Brazil and 11.9% in Colombia – a far cry from gains seen on internationally traded markets like ICE.
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