The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) sees Ivory Coast’s cocoa production reaching 2 million metric tonnes in the 2024/25 season, according to an ICCO expert.
The expert told Reuters this expectation – which overtakes last season’s 1.8 million tonnes – on the condition of anonymity.
Neighbours Ivory Coast and Ghana are the world’s top two cocoa producers, but adverse weather conditions and plant disease hurt output in the 2023/24 season.
As a result, cocoa prices increased worldwide.
Referring to the average seasonal production of 2.2 million tonnes over the three seasons predating this dip, the expert said, “We believe that Ivory Coast’s production will return to an acceptable level of 2 million tonnes, even if it will still be below the usual average.”
In Ghana, the ICCO does not expect production to exceed 500,000 tonnes in 2024/25 due to issues related to artisanal fold-mining and the prevalence of swollen shoot disease.
The latter affects about 40% of Ghanian plantations – above the 15%-20% affected in Ivory Coast.
Weather Conditions
Four cocoa exporters and three pod counters who follow the sector in both countries said the weather will play a key role in determining the volume output of the season.
Conditions in early 2025 will be particularly key as farms contend with the dry Harmattan wind and seasonal rain.
Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) is aiming for maximum production of 2 million tonnes of cocoa in the coming seasons, said a source at the regulator.
The CCC source said, “Our forecasts are between 1.9 and 2 million tonnes, but it’s still too early to say.
“There is too much rain currently, and the flowers have fallen, and some cherelles (developing pods) have died.”
The director of an international cocoa export company based in Abidjan was also circumspect about the outlook.
The director said, “Do I share the ICCO expert’s projections for this season’s production? Yes, but I remain cautious.
“We really don’t know why production dropped so much in a single year (2023/24), and it’s not just because of the weather conditions.”
